Diversity: psychology?s life depends upon it

By Henry Tomes, PhD
Executive Director for the Public Interest

From time to time I try to envision the future as it might relate to psychology as a field of scientific and professional activity. One element of this is how psychology will adapt to and incorporate the demographic projections of the future.

It has been made relatively clear in the report the 'Changing Gender Composition of Psychology' that women will soon outnumber men within psychology. This phenomenon is occurring in other scientific and professional fields where women are becoming more numerous. However, another demographic feature is one relating to people of color (African-American, American Indian, Asian-American and Hispanic) and how they will become involved in and utilize psychology in the future.

Some national numbers

The current estimated U.S. population is 271 million?195.8 million whites, 32.8 million blacks, 2.0 million American Indians, 9.9 million Asians and 29.6 million Hispanics. People of color make up about 28 percent of the total population. In 2035 the population is projected to be 358 million, with people of color making up about 41 percent. By midcentury the total is projected to be 394 million, with people of color about 48 percent of that total, whites about 208 million, Hispanics 97 million, blacks 53 million, Asians 32 million, and American Indians 4 million.

When these estimates are applied to schools, jobs and politics one is able to understand that the country?s future will definitely be influenced by people of color. (However, it is not likely that the population increases will effect a redistribution of wealth currently owned by whites, with the current factor ranging from five to one to 15 to one.) The national dynamic generated by significant population growth within non-white communities is likely to be a major influence on the nation and its economy.

Some psychology numbers: APA?s membership is 83,000, excluding affiliates. Persons of color constitute about 6 percent, or slightly under 5,000. If one assumes that about half of all psychologists are members of APA , then there could be 165,000 psychologists nationally with another 60,000 graduate and professional school students.

Looking at ethnic-minority membership using the 6 percent factor?sometimes referred to as the 6 percent solution?it would be reasonable, probably generous, to estimate there may be 9,000 psychologists of color in the United States. Assume that psychologists increase in proportion to the projected population increase and that by 2050 there is a net population increase of about 45 percent, from 270 million to 394 million. The number of psychologists would increase to 240,000 and APA membership to 120,000. Using current membership estimates for psychologists of color, there would be slightly more than 14,000 nationally, with about half, 7,200, belonging to APA.

What do the numbers mean?

There are two sides to this question: supply and demand. Let?s take supply first. Even if graduate and professional schools were to admit many more students of color to their programs, it would be unlikely that over the next 50 years there would be anything approaching parity. Six percent, with perhaps an increase to double digits, does not begin to address the supply question: Will there be a significantly enlarged pool of psychologists to begin filling the academic, scientific and professional roles available to psychologists at mid-21st century?

That leads to the demand side of the question. Who will meet the psychological, health and mental health needs of an increasingly multicultural society in which almost 50 percent of citizens will be persons of color in 2050? The short answer is not the estimated 14,000 or 15,000 psychologists of color. On the other hand the answer is not the 200,000-plus majority?not if they continue to be trained within the narrow curricula that presently exist in psychology graduate and professional schools.

Psychology should begin now to prepare for the future. Such preparation requires commitment from deans, department chairs, program heads to address and plan a place for psychology in a multicultural society. Will it be central or marginal? Perhaps some thought could be given to who will be the psychologists of the future, or will it be business as usual? Fifty years is not much time for a discipline that we still refer to as a young profession. It seems just yesterday that I stood with Dr. Robert Williams, chair of the Association of Black Psychologists, as he presented a 10-point plan to APA to increase the number of African-American psychologists. That was in 1969, a mere 30 years ago! Now the task is more daunting, American psychology?s very life may depend on it.