NAS summary on counter terrorism initiatives

Summary of Selected Counter-Terrorism Initiatives by the National Academies

December 18, 2001

S&T Agenda for Countering Terrorism

This project is aimed at helping the federal government, and more specifically the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Dr. Jack Marburger, to use effectively the nation’s and the world’s scientific and technical community in a timely response to the threat of catastrophic terrorism. A committee of distinguished scientists and engineers with supporting panels will help to develop an integrated science and technology program plan and research strategy. Phase 1 of the project will in six months: (1)prepare a carefully delineated typology or taxonomy for the application of science and technology for combating terrorism, (2)prepare research agendas in seven key areas (biological; chemical; nuclear and radiological; information technology, computers, and telecommunications; transportation; energy facilities, buildings, and fixed infrastructure; and behavioral, social and institutional issues), and (3)examine a series of cross-cutting issues. Phase 2 will review key government research programs and provide recommendations for building improved interagency capabilities and coordination. A final report will be produced by September 11, 2002.

Near-term Assistance for the U.S. Government

On urgent topics where the government needs immediate assistance, the Academies are inviting scientific experts to meet with government representatives in one-day meetings.Although no written reports are produced and no formal Academy advice is provided, the dialogue is very beneficial to federal agencies, including the inter-agency Technical Support Working Group (TSWG) on counter-terrorism. Recent examples include a meeting for the U.S. Postal Service on sanitizing the mail (11/14/01); a meeting for the Dept. of Justice on how to open the anthrax-infected letter to Senator Leahy (12/7/01); a meeting on human factors for the FAA’s sky marshall program (12/5-6); a meeting on biological and chemical forensics for TSWG (12/11); and a meeting on biological and chemical decontamination for TSWG (12/14).

Combating Terrorism: Prioritizing Vulnerabilities and Developing Mitigation Strategies

The National Academy of Engineering will undertake a 12-month project to identify, assess, and prioritize vulnerabilities to the nation's vital infrastructures posed by global terrorism, and outline strategies (technologies, policies) to mitigate priority vulnerabilities in a manner consistent with a free, open, and prosperous society. Using various fact-finding, forecasting, consensus-building, and risk analysis techniques, the project committee will seek to integrate expert knowledge of the nature of modern terrorism (motives, capabilities, sociology, psychology), terrorist weapons and delivery systems, and the vulnerabilities of vital infrastructures to measure and rank order the myriad terrorist threats to the nation. (supported by NAE)

International Collaborative Activities with Foreign Counterparts to Reduce Near-Term Threats and Long-term Root Causes of Terrorism

Cooperation on Preventing Terrorists from Obtaining Nuclear Materials in Russia, which will include two projects. The first will be a joint effort with the Russian Academy of Sciences to produce a "white paper" assessing the steps that can be taken immediately by the two governments to reduce the risks that nuclear weapons or materials could fall into the hands of terrorists. Working together, the two academies will also identify an agenda for longer-term U.S.-Russian cooperation, including continuing inter-academy attention to problems that may arise and how they might be overcome. The second project will examine the problems that will be faced by economically stressed Russian institutions in maintaining and operating recently installed physical security and accounting systems for protection of plutonium and highly enriched uranium within the framework of cooperative projects when financial support is no longer available from the United States and will assess approaches to ensuring the long-term sustainability of the systems.
Continuing of the U.S.-Russian Inter Academy Project on conflicts in multiethnic societies.
InterAcademy meetings on both a bilateral basis with scientists Pakistan, Iran, and other Moslem nations and on a multi-lateral basis through the InterAcademy Panel.
Planning meeting for a study on building the capability of foreign affairs and development agencies to help in reducing the risk of terrorism, a study that would complement NRC report on "The Pervasive Role of Science, Technology, and Health in Foreign Policy: Imperatives for the State Department".
Continuation of the joint US-Russian InterAcademy Project on high-impact terrorism (supported by the Carnegie Foundation).
Cooperative Research in Russia on Dangerous Pathogens. This project provides for two two-week familiarization visits each year by three or four American investigators (including young investigators) to elected Russian research institutes that had formerly participated in the Soviet biological warfare program. Each year these visits are followed by individually-tailored visits of one to three months to the institutes by three or four of the investigators who are interested in pursuing joint civilian research activities in collaboration with Russian colleagues. These projects provide a mechanism for gaining regular access to the facilities and specialists and thereby promote transparency. They also provide opportunities for Russian scientists who might otherwise look to countries with hostile intentions for support. At the same time, cooperative research helps develop technologies that will be useful in public health, agriculture, and counter-terrorism activities in Russia and the United States.

Preliminary Evaluation of US Industrial Vulnerabilities and Near-term Protective Measures

Evaluations by the appropriate NRC boards in cooperation with volunteers to identify vulnerabilities in key industries, e.g. chemical and energy industries, and short and intermediate term S&T measures that might lessen this vulnerability or reduce the consequences of strikes to key infrastructure. The Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology met with chemical industry representatives on this topic on 12/9/01 and with federal agencies on 12/10/01. Other boards will meet with relevant industries in the weeks ahead.

An Assessment of Naval Forces' Defense capabilities Against Chemical and Biological Warfare Threats

At the request of the Chief of Naval Operations, the Naval Studies Board in conducting a study to: (1) examine existing and potential chemical and biological warfare threats to naval force operations in littoral regions and deep ocean regions of the world; (2) examine and project chemical and biological defense technologies, tactics, and procedures; (3) evaluate R&D and identify priorities for providing naval forces with needed capabilities; and (4) examine testing and evaluation procedures (in conjunction with training procedures) for ensuring adequate defensive capabilities. It is anticipated that a published report will be available by July 2002.

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Improving Cybersecurity Research in the United States

A study by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board will be conducted to determine the extent and nature of current federal research in cybersecurity and to identify areas of research that are not adequately supported.

Information and Security: Enhancing Information Management and Data Mining Capabilities for Combating Terrorism while Protecting Civil Liberties

A planning meeting for a study is being organized by the Computer Science and Technology Board (CSTB. The study would consider research opportunities in data mining as well as ways to minimize the privacy and civil liberties implications of anticipated increased collection and integration of personally identifiable information.

Issues Affecting Universities Arising out of Terrorism Events: Workshop on Implications for Research, Scientific Communication, and Foreign Students

A workshop is being held on December 13 and 14. Topics such as visa and foreign student tracking policies will be reviewed by representative of major research universities. Also discussed will be whether sufficient protections can be achieved to avoid the diversion of biological agents from research facilities into terrorism. The implications of possible restrictions on biomedical research, scientific communication, and on graduate student participation will be discussed.

Improving Research Standards and Practices to Prevent Misuse of Biotechnology Research

A study will review the current rules, regulations, and institutional arrangements and processes in the United States that provide oversight of research on dangerous biological pathogens, including within government laboratories, universities and other research institutions, and industry. The review would focus on how choices are made about which research is and is not appropriate, and how information about relevant ongoing research is collected and shared. It will consider, but not be limited to, the “biosafety” practices that govern the conduct of research and the handling and transport of materials. It will also assess the adequacy of current U.S. rules, regulations, and institutional arrangements and processes to prevent the destructive application of dangerous biological pathogens. It will recommend changes in these practices that could improve U.S. capacity to prevent the destructive application of dangerous biological pathogens while still enabling the conduct of legitimate research. (funded by the Sloan Foundation)

Communicating to Local Governments and Private Citizens about Preparedness for Terrorism Events

A meeting requested by Dr. Marburger will be held in January to plan how better to link federal and state governments on S&T policy, including for combating terrorism. Science representatives of each of the states will attend.

Public Health Initiatives

The Institute of Medicine will conduct new activities as well as capitalizing on work currently on progress to develop and communicate anti-terrorism strategies based on public health principles. The goal is to provide guidance on specific issues of national, local and individual concern, within the framework of a comprehensive strategy to assure the health of the public in the 21^st century. Priority (near term) activities include:

A series of workshops under the Forum of Emerging Infections. The first was held on November 27/28 and addressed Biological Threats and Terrorism: Assessing Science and Response Capabilities. The second will focus on Antibiotic resistance and its implications for counter-terrorism responses.
A comprehensive study of the safety and efficacy of anthrax vaccines will be released in February. Completion of this Department of Defense funded study was accelerated in response top the current need to make decisions regarding manufacture and use of anthrax vaccine.
On November 5^th, the IOM Council issued a Statement on Vaccine Development, assessing the country's capacity to develop, produce and store vaccines. The recommendations include creation of a National Vaccine Authority.
The 1992 IOM report on Emerging Infectious Diseases is being updated and expanded. The committee will include an extensive discussion of issues related to bioterrorism. The report will be issued in early 2003.
A committee report providing a vision for assuring public health in the 21^st century will be issued in the spring of 2002. It will provide a framework for integrating investments and activities related to counter-terrorism into the overall public and private sector infrastructure to assure public health.

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Agricultural Bioterrorism

The Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources is conducting a study to evaluate the ability of the U.S., to deter, prevent, detect, thwart, respond to and recover from an intentional biological attack against the nation’s food and fiber supply. The report is expected in summer 2002. (funded by the USDA)

What Terrorists Value

The Division of Behavioral, Social Sciences, and Education will conduct a study on what high profile terrorists groups value (especially the groups that caused the attack on September 11) with the goal of understanding how better to deter and defeat them.

Assessment of Technologies Deployed to Improve Aviation Security

This study by the National Materials Advisory Board (NMAB) sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration, is assessing the operational performance of passenger screening, explosives detection systems and hardened cargo containers in airports and compare that performance to their performance in laboratory testing, with a focus on ways to deploy these systems more effectively to improve aviation security. The Committee plans a second status report in early 2001 and a third and final report in the fall of 2002 that will examine a technology development strategy for aviation security.

Assessment of Practicality of Pulsed Fast Neutron Analysis for Aviation Security

This National Materials Advisory Board study, sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration, is assessing the practicality of pulsed fast neutron analysis (PFNA) for detecting explosives and other contraband in cargo and passenger baggage in an airport. The capabilities of PFNA are compared with the capabilities of explosives-detection equipment currently available for deployment and with the expected future development of current equipment. The Committee plans publication of their findings early in 2002.

Advanced Energetic Materials and Manufacturing Technologies

This study by the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design is investigating and assessing the manufacturing technologies required to scale up and produce bulk quantities of advanced energetics and suggest opportunities and strategies for government investment. Although these new materials are more difficult to manufacture when compared to standard explosives, they are equally difficult to detect using current systems. The study is sponsored by the Department of Defense.

Materials and Manufacturing Processes for Advanced Sensors

This study by the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design is examining potential technologies for detect-to-warn systems for biological agents. Their charge is to review the DTRA-specified requirements for these systems and identify those requirements that will especially drive the detection concepts and architectures - e.g., less than one minute detection times, continuous operations with attendant implications for consumables and their costs - and understand to what extent, if any, these, or related, parameters (e.g., detection sensitivities), may be relaxed. The committee is also considering examples of representative operational scenarios or architectures (to be provided by the sponsor), which will be invaluable in putting these system requirements and tradeoffs in context.

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Current Additional Specific Board-Based Activities

Support for Transportation Security Research (TRB)
The Transportation Research Board administers two cooperative research programs, one for state departments of transportation and one for the public transportation industry. Funding has been allocated from the Transit Cooperative Research Program to provide flexible, on-going rapid response research on transportation issues related to emergency incident prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, paying particular attention to potential terrorist threats. Consultants have been selected and work is expected to get underway in early 2002. The National Cooperative Highway Research Program is currently supporting the development of manuals for vulnerability assessments and emergency response planning and is expected to program significant funding next year for security related research.

Standing Technical Committee on Critical Infrastructure Protection (TRB)
TRB maintains approximately 200 standing technical committee that support information dissemination activities in transportation. The Committee on Critical Infrastructure Protection, which was established two years ago, facilitates the dissemination of state-of-the practice and state-of-the-art information on infrastructure security and protection and encourages research in this field.It sponsors TRB's website on security and has organized security sessions at TRB's Annual Meeting.

Survey on Vulnerability Assessment (TRB)
TRB is conducting, in cooperation with the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, a survey of states to determine whether and to what extent they have addressed infrastructure planning and security in their planning efforts.

TRB Annual Meeting (TRB)
TRB's Annual Meeting is one of he largest gatherings of transportation professionals in the world. The January 2002 meeting will include over 30 security and recovery related sessions. An overview session will involve the DOT modal administrators and the Deputy Secretary and cover a dozen topics, from port and waterway security issues to aviation safety.

Transportation Associations --Information Sharing (TRB)
TRB organized a meeting of a number of transportation associations to share information about the security issues they are confronting and the activities under way. The group will meet again in three months.

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Redundancies in Transportation Systems (TRB)
A planning meeting will be held to examine multi-modal transportation infrastructure redundancy to enhance defense against terrorist disruption.

Emergency Evacuation in Metropolitan Areas: Barriers and Opportunities (TRB)
A planning meeting will be held to discuss technical and institutional barriers to improved metropolitan-wide evacuation and emergency response.

Vulnerability of the Electric Power Transmission and Distribution System to Terrorism (BEES)
A planning meeting will be held to discuss reducing the impact of terrorist attacks on the electric transmission and distribution system.

Safety of Our Nation’s Water Supplies (WSTB)
A series of activities will be held to discuss safety of the short term security and longer term research initiatives relevant to water supply safety from terrorist attacks.

Forum on How Natural Disaster Research Can Inform the Response to Terrorism (NDR)
The Natural Disasters Roundtable (NDR) will conduct a two-day workshop to develop thoughts on how responses to natural disasters might be applied to threats provided by terrorism. Topics to be considered could include engineering design, promoting public awareness and understanding, evacuation planning, recovery planning, utilization of technology to detect and monitor public health risks, public health system needs, and mental health consequences.

Interdisciplinary Vulnerabilities for Critical Infrastructure Protection (BICE)
A one-day workshop was held on October 31stto help develop methodologies to analyze interdependent vulnerabilities. The Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment is developing a workshop series to address these problems.

Chemical Stockpile Activities (BAST)
The Board on Army Science and Technology has conducted a fast-track review of proposed process changes for the expedited disposal of the chemical weapons stockpile inventory.Letter reports are being provided to the Army within the month. (funded by the Army)

A second BAST activity is an examination of the state of the stockpile as delivered to disposal facilities and the effects of stockpile condition on processing, handling, monitoring and stakeholder reaction. (funded by the Army)

A third activity is an evaluation of process changes for alternative technology at the Aberdeen Bulk-Only Chemical Agent Disposal Facility. (funded by the Army)

Forum on Terrorism (Committee on Law and Justice) (DBASSE)
As part of the Academies’ investment in ‘root-cause’ analysis of terrorism, the Forum will discuss relevant social science tools to summarize the knowledge base on terrorism. The objective would be to improve understanding of the current situation, giving rise to terrorism both in the United States and in the Muslim world. A series of workshops and commissioned papers will examine such topics as:

Understanding International Terrorism with emphasis upon research from political science and sociology
A more specific contextual examination of terrorism in the Middle East
Organizational analysis and terrorism
A profile of terrorists
Recent uses of profiling and their application to combating terrorism
Money laundering
Collective behavior of populations under the threat of danger

General Education of the Media and Public on Terrorism Vulnerabilities and Responses
On 12/6/01, the Academies and the Foundation for American Communications (FACS) co-sponsored a Conference for News Executives [“Terror and Homeland Defense: Bringing the Stories Home”] at the Reserve Officers Association. Approximately 50 media representatives attended. Successive speakers provided the context for terrorism (Anthony Cordesman, Senior Fellow at CSIS), a framework for analysis and evaluation of threats and responses (Bill Wulf, NAE), assessment of the real risk of terrorism (Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie-Mellon University), and Discussions of explicit threat modalities and responses (bio, nuclear, cyber, infrastructure).

Cybersecurity and Authentication Technologies (CSTB)
The computer Science and Telecommunications Board has issued a letter report synthesizing a decade of work on cybersecurity, focusing on issue identification and practical guidance. CSTB's Committee to Study Authentication Technologies and Their Implications for Privacy has undertaken to develop a brief, interim report addressing issues associated with the concept of national identification systems. The resulting pamphlet will be ready in the winter.

Chemistry and National Security (BCST)
The Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology is holding a workshop in January on Chemistry and national security.

Mathematics and Homeland Security (BMS)
The Board on Mathematical Sciences is holding a workshop in April on mathematical topics relevant for homeland security, including pattern recognition and data mining, epidemiological modeling, voice and image recognition.

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