After years of studying the psychological effects of video game violence, psychologist James Sauer, PhD, a senior lecturer at the University of Tasmania in Australia, took notice when Belgium became the first country to ban a feature called loot boxes in video games in 2018. Loot boxes are digital containers that players can buy for a small amount of money. Once purchased, the box might reveal a special skin or weapon that enhances a character’s looks or gives a player a competitive advantage. Or it might be worthless.
On a Skype call after the news broke, Sauer, a psychological scientist and coexecutive director of the International Media Psychology Laboratory, talked with his collaborator, psychological scientist Aaron Drummond, PhD, of Massey University in New Zealand, about Belgium’s decision. Because loot boxes represent a financial risk with an unknown reward, Belgian policymakers had categorized them as a form of gambling, and those policymakers were not the only ones. Countries and states that have passed or considered regulations on loot boxes include Australia, the Netherlands, and Hawaii. But those regulations were contentious.
Sauer and Drummond discussed the need for more science to guide the debate. “We were trying to think about how we might contribute something sensible to a discussion about whether these in-game reward mechanisms should or should not be viewed as a form of gambling,” Sauer said.
To fill the evidence gap, the researchers watched online videos of players opening loot boxes in 22 popular and recently released games that had been rated by the Entertainment Software Ratings Board as appropriate for people ages 17 and younger. Nearly half of the games met the definition for gambling, the researchers reported in 2018, including Madden NFL 18, Assassin’s Creed Origins, FIFA 18, and Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare (Nature Human Behaviour, Vol. 2, 2018opens in new window). Among the criteria for qualifying as gambling was an exchange of real money for valuable goods with an unknown outcome determined at least partly by chance. Purchased objects had value that gave an advantage in the game and sometimes could be sold or traded to others for real money.
Loot boxes tap into the same psychological principles that draw people to slot machines, Sauer said. They may deliver a big payoff, but payoffs come at random intervals. Unlike rewards given after every repetition of a behavior, this type of variable ratio reinforcement, or intermittent reinforcement, exploits a cognitive distortion that makes a player or gambler view each loss as one step closer to a win and can lead to very rapid adoption of a behavior that can then be hard to extinguish, Sauer said. Animals exhibit the same patterns. “They feel sure that the reward is coming, but they can’t know when, so they keep repeating the behavior,” he said. “They continue even as rewards become less and less frequent and even stop entirely.”
After establishing that loot boxes, which generate billions of dollars in revenue for video game companies, are often in fact a type of gambling, studies by Sauer’s group and others since then have shown that people who spend more on loot boxes are often at higher risk of developing gambling problems, and that the connection is strongest in adolescence. Scientists are now working to untangle the question of whether buying loot boxes can cause gambling addictions, and at least some evidence supports this kind of gateway idea.
In one survey of 1,102 adults in the United Kingdom, about 20% of gamblers said that loot boxes were their first introduction to gambling and that their experiences with the game rewards made them think that other forms of gambling could be fun, according to a 2022 study (Spicer, S. G., et al., Addictive Behaviors, Vol. 131, No. 107327, 2022opens in new window). More than 80% of them had started buying loot boxes before they were 18. More recently, Canadian researchers surveyed hundreds of young adult video gamers at two time points, 6 months apart. Among those who were not gamblers when the study started, dozens went on to gamble over the course of the study, they reported in 2023, suggesting that loot boxes had opened the gambling floodgates (Brooks, G. A., & Clark, L., Computers in Human Behavior, Vol. 141, No. 107605, 2023opens in new window).
But the relationship can also go the other way. People who already gambled, the Canadian researchers found, spent more on loot boxes. And in the U.K. research, about 20% of people who started out with other types of gambling migrated to loot boxes—the same proportion that went in the other direction. Figuring out how loot boxes and gambling behavior influence each other remains a work in progress. “We just don’t have the data yet to understand the long-term consequences,” Sauer said.
Also contentious is the question of how loot boxes affect mental health. Sauer’s group has found a link between spending on loot boxes and severe psychological distress (Scientific Reports, Vol. 12, No. 16128, 2022opens in new window), while other research has failed to find the same association. Because kids are increasingly being exposed to gambling, it is an important question to sort through. “Some researchers have argued,” Sauer said, “that if we don’t want kids engaging with bona fide gambling behaviors, maybe we want to be wary about kids engaging with these...gambling-like reward mechanisms.”