Psychology programs prep for steep drop in college students

During the 2008 financial crisis, the birth rate plummeted. Nearly 18 years later, higher education is on the verge of feeling the impact. By some estimates, college enrollment will fall 15% by 2029 (College students predicted to fall by more than 15% after the year 2025opens in new window, The Hechinger Report, 2018). What is being called the “Great Cliff” is arriving, and psychologists are raising concerns: In the short term, fewer students and tuition dollars are already driving canceled classes, layoffs, funding cuts, and even mergers or closures of struggling schools. Over the long term, the drop-off could pose real threats to the field of psychology, harming the quality of education and training, psychological research, and patient care.

“We’re looking at a very serious crisis, and we’re going to see massive problems for psychology and related professions if we don’t get ahead of it and correct course,” said Melanie Wilcox, PhD, ABPP, a licensed psychologist, an assistant professor at Augusta University in Georgia, and a member and former chair of APA’s Board of Educational Affairs (BEA), which has devised an action plan for addressing the enrollment crisis that includes better promotion of psychology’s value as well as career paths in the field. “It is very, very important that more people are aware of the details and complexity of this problem.”

[Related: Higher education is struggling. Psychologists are navigating its uncertain future]

The looming demographic cliff is one of several compounding issues threatening college enrollment, which declined sharply during the pandemic and has yet to recover (Current Term Enrollment Estimates, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 2023). Rising student loan debt, new alternatives to traditional degree programs, and other factors are causing many people to question whether a college degree is worth the cost.

Fortunately, there is still time to act. To preserve professional pathways in the field, it is crucial to show prospective students why psychology is critical for promoting health around the world and solving some of society’s biggest problems, to provide clear guidance about career paths in the field, and to start attracting students well before college. At the systemic level, experts say increased advocacy is needed to make higher education more financially viable, including for nontraditional college students such as midcareer professionals returning to school.

“Relying solely on traditional college-age students is not going to work, because the raw number will inevitably decrease,” said psychologist Peggy Brady-Amoon, PhD, a BEA member and a professor in the Department of Professional Psychology and Family Therapy at Seton Hall University in New Jersey. “Yes, this is a challenge, but it also gives us an opportunity to rethink what we do and how we do it.”

The enrollment cliff is expected to strain some schools more than others. Prestigious and well-resourced institutions, such as Ivy League schools and those with large endowments, are likely to remain in high demand and stay financially secure.

But small regional private schools, public 4-year universities, and minority-serving institutions—including historically Black colleges and universities—may lose students who are courted by elite schools and suffer more from the loss of tuition dollars, said Jennifer Taylor, PhD, a former BEA chair and a senior director in APA’s Education Directorate.

Financial concerns about the value of a college degree are growing: More than half of Americans said college is not worth the investment in a 2023 Wall Street Journal–NORC poll. Pursuing a degree in a lower-paying field, such as social work or K–12 education, may become less attractive. Instead, students are trending toward professions that promise higher pay, Wilcox said, such as medicine and computer science.

“How do undergraduates view a bachelor’s degree in psychology? Students may not see a clear pathway into psychology as a profession unless they achieve a graduate degree,” said psychologist Susan Opotow, PhD, the 2023 BEA chair and a professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice and the Graduate Center of the City University of New York.

Undergraduate psychology programs have a broad appeal, which can be seen as a positive, said Hideko Sera, PsyD, director of equity, inclusion, and belonging at Morehouse College, a historically Black men’s college in Atlanta, who introduced the Great Cliff discussions to the BEA in 2020. Such programs have traditionally welcomed and appealed to students pursuing a range of occupations, such as management, marketing, or other helping professions, ensuring that psychological insights are integrated into many fields.

“There’s a beauty in that approach, but it also means that not all undergraduate students go on to do psychological research, practice, advocacy, and consultation,” said Sera, who is also a member of the BEA. “Unlike traditional STEM or business fields, we have less of a built-in pathway to shepherd undergraduates along to graduate school and into the profession.”

Combined with other upheavals in higher education—including threats to academic freedom, the end of affirmative action, an exodus of faculty, rising student loan debt, and declining trust in science—the Great Cliff represents an existential threat to the field of psychology, Sera said.

“We’re staring down the barrel of a multifaceted problem that is not a temporary blip in the radar, but one that is worsening,” Wilcox said. “We can’t make more 18-year-olds, so what are the things we can control?”

Answering that question is a priority for the BEA, as well the Committee on Associate and Baccalaureate Education (CABE) and other groups at APA and beyond. Psychologists say it is critical for professionals across the field to help communicate to administrators, students, and the public about how psychological knowledge contributes to society.

“A lot of folks don’t realize how diverse and far-reaching psychology is, so one of our jobs as educators, writers, and teachers is to amplify that message,” said Brady-Amoon.

That can include calling attention to the mental health provider shortage, for one, and the risk that it will worsen if students do not pursue careers in psychology. It is also important to show how psychologists contribute to other current pressing issues in society, including helping families navigate social media use, supporting the ethical development of new technologies, and studying ways to reduce racism, ageism, and other forms of bias in a variety of settings.

Career education can start well before college. Resources such as the Smithsonian’s “I Am Psyched!” virtual exhibit, as well as videos and web content produced by APA’s Committee of Teachers of Psychology in Secondary Schools, can offer middle and high school students opportunities to learn about psychology as a career. Weaving career education into the early stages of undergraduate psychology courses is a way to help ensure that studying psychology is beneficial for students over both the short and long term, and should be a priority, Opotow said.

“It needs to be much more obvious what the career routes are from psychology major to psychology jobs,” she said.

That can include short internships or opportunities to shadow a professional for an afternoon, but it should also involve sharing information about what jobs are available to bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral-level psychology degree holders and the costs associated with each path. According to APA’s Center for Workforce Studies (CWS), about 1.5 million U.S. workers hold a bachelor’s degree in psychology as their highest degree. They work in 88 out of 129 different occupation categories, with management, marketing, and social work among the most common roles.

Another way to show the utility of a degree in psychology is to emphasize the skills that psychology undergraduates develop during their course of study, said David Strohmetz, PhD, chair and professor of psychology at the University of West Florida.

“Students aren’t just learning how to design a research study. They’re learning transferrable skills like writing and problem-solving that are highly valued by employers,” he said.

APA’s Skillful Psychology Student guide (PDF, 56KB)opens in new window describes abilities such as analytical thinking, oral and written communication, self-regulation, leadership, inclusivity, and technological know-how that can prepare students to succeed in a wide range of occupations.

“There are so many different jobs that knowledge of psychology can inform and enhance,” Brady-Amoon said. “Let’s do some marketing and promotion to get the word out that a career in psychology is a good choice.”

While selling the benefits of a psychology degree can help departments bolster enrollment amid the impending demographic shift, broader change is needed in higher education in order for it to remain viable over the long term, Wilcox said.

Strengthening pathways into the field for community college students is a good place to start, said Sue Orsillo, PhD, APA’s senior director for psychology education and training. CWS data show that about 50% of psychology bachelor’s degree holders attended community college, with high attendance from groups that are traditionally underrepresented in the field, including non-White and first-generation college students.

CABE and APA’s Education Directorate are providing teaching resources to educators at 2-year schools and to increase their engagement with APA. Other efforts seek to make it easier to transfer credit between 2- and 4-year institutions and to provide research opportunities for students at community colleges.

Four-year institutions can also retain students and even boost enrollment by providing better support for nontraditional students, including commuters, part-time students, and those returning to school after a hiatus. Already, a third of undergraduate students are ages 25 and over, according to 2021 data from the National Center for Education Statistics.

Schools can better support these students by giving credit for nontraditional learning experiences (including work or internships), offering flexible options for studying (including hybrid courses and year-round degree programs), and facilitating what Brady-Amoon calls “easy on and offs” so that students can pause and resume schooling seamlessly as obligations shift.

Policy changes that make school more affordable are another way to lessen potential fallout from the Great Cliff. Within and across institutions, graduate student unions can advocate for fair pay and benefits to make graduate degrees economically feasible for more students. At the state and federal levels, psychologists can advocate for student loan forgiveness and other financial reforms in higher education. Explore the APA Advocacy Office’s Psychologist’s Guide to Advocacy, learn about ways to get involved, and consider joining the Psychology Political Action Committee.

“There’s still an opportunity for us to be proactive rather than reactive about this,” Taylor said. “We can make an impact by engaging in those discussions now and using the strategies laid out by the BEA to push back on the demographic cliff.”